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Energy analysts have expressed deep doubt regarding bullish statements that American large firms will swiftly invest billions of dollars to revive the country's broken production facilities.

Requirement of Solid Guarantees

Absent an “iron-clad guarantee” of financial backing from the Washington, experts believe multinational oil companies to proceed with extreme caution.

“It is premature to discuss any upcoming plans,” an official stated recently.

The ambitious timeframe of under a year and a half was publicly proposed. Yet, realistic assessments paint a different picture.

A Likely Timeline

“It’s probably going to take multiple years for any significant production bounce,” noted one industry expert.

He suggested oil companies would likely spend:

• Year one: Securing new government and security contracts.
• Following phase: Beginning rebuilding of facilities.
• Year three: Being able to significantly ramp up output.

This suggests an boost of around half a million bpd maybe by 2029.

Appetite Compared to Appetite for Investment

Experts make a critical difference between multinationals’ interest and their appetite to invest heavily.

“I believe their interest is an high score, on a scale of ten. However, their readiness is a four or five, because there is no clarity yet.”

Veteran observers in the country share this caution. The expectation is that majors will publicly call it fantastic while actually acting with deliberate slowness.

The Enormous Investment Required

The financial investment would be colossal. Research projections suggest that increasing production by between 500,000 and a million bpd would require more than $10 billion in investment over several years.

However, restoring output to peak levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Unanswered Issue of Taxpayer Funding

The suggestion of energy companies being compensated by the government has been often raised. But, specific plans on this proposal have so far not been provided.

The absence of certainty is the main reason behind the industry's hesitation. Operators seek protection against sovereign risk and the possibility that a different government could renege on any agreement.

“You need to be insured against nationalization, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela previously.”

In summary, while political optimism runs strong, the practical realities suggest a path of slow deliberation for any significant venture in the country's oil sector.